Coaching Decisions Influence Over Potential Overtime Games in the NFL
Washburn University. School of Business
Kaw Valley Bank
In the National Football League, it is important for a coach to use all information available when deciding, during the game, whether to attempt to win a game during regulation or to play for overtime. An incorrect decision may result in the team not making the playoffs and the coach losing his job. The probability the home team will win an overtime game depends on pre-game statistics (winning percentage and winning streak), momentum going into overtime (points scored in the fourth quarter), and the overtime coin toss, which can dramatically increase the effectiveness of the decision of whether to play for overtime.